Possible scenario
Deal Separated
20% Chance
Washington decides that making the Lukoil transaction part of the peace bargain creates too much political and legal risk. The asset sale proceeds through a sanctions-licensing channel while diplomats continue ceasefire discussions on a separate track.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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