Possible scenario
Labor Disruptions Spread
20% Chance
The 150,000 summer arrests begin to show up in sectors that rely heavily on immigrant labor, especially agriculture, food processing, hospitality, construction, and local services. This scenario is plausible because the hiring surge suggests ICE can sustain higher arrest volumes beyond a one-month peak.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.2%
- Business Services +0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
- DMC-0.6%
- -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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