Possible scenario
Courts Limit Tactics
25% Chance
Legal challenges from states, cities, immigrant-rights groups, and employers test the scope of the administration's wartime-law deportation strategy. The most likely court outcome is not a full stop, but a narrowing of arrest procedures, detention standards, or expedited-removal practices.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.2%
Tickers
- GEO-2.1%
- -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.