Possible scenario
Isolated Crew Assault
45% Chance
Saudi investigators conclude the cockpit incident was a one-off criminal or personal episode rather than a coordinated aviation-security threat. Captain Smit Machchhar remains the identified victim, the arrested Flydubai pilot stays in custody, and Flydubai continues most operations with limited schedule disruption.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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