Possible scenario
Incremental Progress
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Ukrainian officials and the Trump administration make procedural progress without a final peace deal. Both sides have incentives to show momentum after Ukraine's renewed ceasefire call, but territorial sequencing, enforcement, and Russia's role remain difficult.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Tickers
- LMT-0.3%
- NOC+0.3%
- -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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