Possible scenario
Aggressive House probes
40% Chance
Democrats win enough House control to give committee chairs subpoena power and make Trump business conflicts an early oversight priority. The most likely focus is a mix of Trump Organization foreign payments, CIC Digital and World Liberty Financial crypto revenues, and access-for-investment allegations tied to donors and foreign-linked entities.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
Tickers
- -5.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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