Possible scenario
Supply Relief Arrives
20% Chance
Diesel prices ease without a ban as refinery runs improve, imports increase, or foreign supply normalizes. This outcome would validate the administration's rejection of export controls and reduce inflation concerns tied to freight and agricultural fuel costs.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Industrials +0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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