Possible scenario
Prolonged Outage Strain
25% Chance
A meaningful minority of customers remain without power beyond the initial restoration window, increasing political scrutiny after the February 2026 cold-snap failures. The event becomes a regional utility-reliability story rather than a national macro shock.
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.8%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
- ED-1.4%
- HD+0.3%
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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