Possible scenario
Strikes Continue Nearby
25% Chance
Russia follows the attack with additional strikes on Kyiv's research, power, or industrial infrastructure. The risk is not a confirmed nuclear accident, but a higher probability of repeated attacks near sensitive facilities, which would create modest safe-haven flows.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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