Possible scenario
Damage Remains Contained
55% Chance
Ukrainian nuclear regulators and the IAEA confirm that the attack damaged buildings or equipment but did not affect any reactor, spent fuel, or radiological source. This is the most likely outcome because the headline already indicates no reactor damage and follows a pattern of Russian strikes that cause disruption without triggering a nuclear accident.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.