Possible scenario
Hybrid Pressure Intensifies
20% Chance
Russia could pair the border curfew with deniable pressure such as GPS interference, cyber operations, or drones. This would fit the recent pattern of hybrid probing against NATO while still stopping short of open conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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