Possible scenario
Estonian Border Measures
25% Chance
Estonia is likely to respond through border management rather than military escalation if the curfew affects traffic or surveillance. Measures could range from nighttime restrictions to a short full closure of land crossings with Russia.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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