Possible scenario
Curfew De-escalates
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Moscow uses the curfew as a limited security signal rather than the start of a broader confrontation. Estonia and NATO keep monitoring the border, but no new incident forces a major policy response.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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