Possible scenario
Rapid Market Relief
15% Chance
The futures spike proves short-lived as additional pipeline supply, LNG arrivals, and lower power-sector gas demand calm the market. Traders treat the storage warning as an operational problem rather than a winter shortage signal.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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