Possible scenario
Rogoff Returns Temporarily
25% Chance
Rogoff could still regain the post if the 9th Circuit concludes that the firing or replacement process violated statutory limits on interim U.S. attorney appointments. This outcome would be a setback for DOJ but would remain a narrow personnel and separation-of-powers dispute.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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