Possible scenario
DOJ Wins Appeal
40% Chance
The most likely path is that the 9th Circuit treats the district court's reinstatement order as an overreach and allows the Justice Department to keep Rogoff out while the case proceeds. Given the Supreme Court's recent tolerance for removals at other agencies, the appeals court may avoid forcing an unwanted U.S. attorney back into office.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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