Possible scenario
Federal Crackdown Expands
20% Chance
The Justice Department links the Florida prosecutions to the DHS voter audit and Trump administration national eligible-voter list initiative. More states announce reviews, making election administration a national legal and political issue ahead of the next federal election cycle.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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