Possible scenario
Courts Limit Prosecutions
27% Chance
Defense lawyers and voting-rights groups challenge the prosecutions, arguing that state agencies improperly registered noncitizens and then punished them for relying on official eligibility notices. Courts narrow or pause some cases, weakening the political impact of the enforcement push.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.