Possible scenario
Hybrid Pressure Persists
25% Chance
Belarus continues low-cost hybrid tactics using drones, balloons, and airspace probes to disrupt Lithuanian infrastructure without crossing the threshold for open conflict. NATO responds with more patrols and intelligence sharing, while Baltic travel and logistics face recurring operational uncertainty.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.7%
- Industrials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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