Retaliation Cycle

its chance, of the story’s futures

−2.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Washington treats the Chinese ban as evidence that export-license concessions are no longer useful. Beijing and Washington trade narrower chip restrictions, increasing uncertainty for U.S. accelerator vendors and Chinese AI operators.

What it moves

Technology−4.2%
Industrials−0.4%
Telecommunications−0.4%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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