Possible scenario
Saudi Retaliation Escalates
25% Chance
Riyadh answers the airport shutdown with airstrikes on Houthi missile and drone infrastructure in Yemen. The response is likely to be calibrated, but it raises the risk of additional Houthi launches against Saudi aviation and logistics assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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