Possible scenario
Mediated Pause Emerges
20% Chance
Oman, the United Nations, and possibly U.S. envoys push both sides toward an immediate pause on attacks affecting civilian aviation. This outcome is plausible because repeated attacks on the Saudi capital create pressure for de-escalation without requiring a comprehensive Yemen settlement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.9%
- Energy -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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