Possible scenario
Airport Partly Restored
40% Chance
Saudi authorities restore limited operations at King Khalid International Airport after reinforcing air defenses and rerouting arrivals. This is the most likely path because Riyadh has strong incentives to prove continuity and avoid a prolonged capital-city aviation shutdown.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Finance -0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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