Possible scenario
Emergency UK Review
35% Chance
The UK government treats the stress-leave episode as evidence that the AI Safety Institute is under-resourced for the latest capability jumps. DSIT and the Cabinet Office move quickly to stabilize the institute, preserve confidence before the OpenAI-Anthropic safety-testing pact, and avoid appearing behind the frontier labs.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +1.1%
- Technology -0.4%
- Industrials -0.3%
Tickers
- MSFT-0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.