Possible scenario
Trust Questions Persist
30% Chance
Even if Talarico was home, the campaign's earlier silence gives Paxton and conservative media a sustained opening. The issue becomes less about location and more about transparency, staff competence, and whether voters were misled during a competitive Senate race.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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