Possible scenario
Absence Story Fades
45% Chance
The NYT confirmation that James Talarico was home during most of the absence undercuts the most sensational claims about his whereabouts. The campaign reframes the episode as a privacy and opposition-research issue, and the Texas Senate race returns to abortion, border security, education, and Ken Paxton's record.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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