Possible scenario
Financing Terms Repriced
20% Chance
The fall in the pre-IPO contract could feed directly into negotiations around the $30B private raise that replaced the IPO path. In this scenario, investors still want exposure to OpenAI but demand better terms, additional disclosure, or stronger governance protections.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
Tickers
- MSFT-0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.