Possible scenario
Contested Photo Finish
14% Chance
The race lands inside recount territory or close enough that neither campaign concedes quickly. County canvasses, provisional ballots, and absentee-ballot curing determine the winner after days or weeks of scrutiny.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.