Possible scenario
Partisanship Reasserts Itself
25% Chance
The RFK Jr. outreach generates media attention but has little durable effect on voter behavior. Most RFK-aligned voters who followed him to Trump remain Republican-leaning, while Democratic voters prioritize Senate control and vote for El-Sayed anyway.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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