Possible scenario
Talks Drag On
45% Chance
The most likely path is a continuation of indirect US-Iran diplomacy through Qatar without a near-term deal. Both sides have incentives to avoid escalation, but Iran's distrust of Washington and disputes over uranium stockpiles keep a comprehensive agreement out of reach.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Tickers
- XOM+0.2%
- +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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