Possible scenario
Talks Break Down
20% Chance
Diplomacy could stall if Tehran rejects sequencing demands or Washington refuses sanctions relief before verifiable nuclear limits. This would likely return the issue to the IAEA Board of Governors, the E3, and US sanctions enforcement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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