Possible scenario
Limited Interim Deal
25% Chance
A narrow interim arrangement becomes possible if both sides prioritize risk reduction over a full revival of the June framework. The most realistic version would trade temporary enrichment limits or better monitoring for limited humanitarian or oil-revenue relief.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.9%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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