Possible scenario
Warm Winter Demand Drop
45% Chance
The strongest El Niño since 1950 keeps North Asia warmer than normal through early winter, reducing heating demand in China, Japan and South Korea. LNG, coal and oil-linked fuel demand expectations are marked down, while import-dependent utilities benefit from lower spot procurement costs.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.9%
- Utilities +0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.