Possible scenario
Asia Fuel Mix Shifts
18% Chance
El Niño does not simply reduce energy demand; it changes which fuels utilities choose to burn and when they restock. Lower heating loads, cheap spot LNG and hydro variability create divergent outcomes for gas, coal and utility equities.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
- Utilities +0.2%
- Energy -0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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