Possible scenario
US Limits Fallout
20% Chance
The United States prevents the UK initiative from becoming binding UN Security Council action. The UK, Canada, Australia, and parts of Europe continue national measures, but the absence of US participation keeps the financial and trade impact relatively contained.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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