Possible scenario
GOP Overperforms Polls
18% Chance
The cash advantage combines with favorable turnout among lower-propensity Trump voters and late Republican consolidation. This outcome would be read as validating Trump's centralized fundraising model and strengthening his leverage over congressional Republicans.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Finance +0.9%
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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