Possible scenario
Bipartisan bill advances
45% Chance
Westerman's support gives House Republicans a senior committee validator for the Senate framework, increasing the odds that leadership keeps the bill intact enough for bipartisan passage. Guthrie still seeks changes, but the core deal survives because transmission, mining, and energy-project timelines have cross-party constituencies.
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +1.0%
- Energy +0.9%
- Industrials +0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.7%
Tickers
- PWR+1.2%
- NEE+1.0%
- +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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