Possible scenario
Strike Is Delayed
30% Chance
The leak makes an Israeli attack before the U.S. midterms politically costlier and operationally more exposed. U.S., European, and Gulf intermediaries press Israel to postpone action while warning Iran against another missile attack.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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