Possible scenario
Limited Israeli Strike
35% Chance
Israel concludes that waiting until after the U.S. midterms would allow Iran to harden nuclear sites and replenish missile inventories. Washington publicly distances itself while privately providing intelligence, refueling coordination, and regional air-defense support.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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