Possible scenario
Ukraine Expands Strikes
27% Chance
Ukraine uses the Sberbank hub strike as proof that Russian digital infrastructure remains vulnerable despite costly defenses. Further attacks would likely focus on finance, government cloud, logistics, and telecom nodes with clear military or administrative value.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Technology -0.2%
- Telecommunications -0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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