Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation
22% Chance
Moscow may respond asymmetrically by targeting Ukrainian government networks, energy systems, or banking services. Retaliation is plausible because the Sberbank facility reportedly hosted government-linked GosTech data, but Russia is still likely to avoid actions that trigger a direct NATO response.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
- Energy +0.1%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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