Possible scenario
Export Controls Tighten
20% Chance
Washington interprets Alibaba's chip ambitions as evidence that prior restrictions are pushing China toward indigenous AI capacity, but also as a reason to further restrict semiconductor tools, HBM, and cloud access. This scenario would affect the broader AI hardware supply chain more than Alibaba alone.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.6%
- Industrials -0.3%
- Telecommunications -0.2%
- Business Services -0.1%
Tickers
- MU-1.7%
- NVDA-1.7%
- -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.