Possible scenario
Alibaba Stack Succeeds
40% Chance
Alibaba executes on both the 10 trillion parameter model and a high-end domestic AI accelerator, narrowing China's dependence on Nvidia for frontier training and inference. This is the most likely path because Alibaba already has Qwen momentum, cloud distribution, and incentives created by U.S. export restrictions.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +2.5%
- Telecommunications +0.4%
- Business Services +0.4%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- NVDA-2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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