Possible scenario
Talarico Flips Seat
43% Chance
James Talarico sustains his fundraising and advertising advantage while Ken Paxton remains defined by impeachment history, ethics attacks, and doubts among suburban Republicans. Trump continues defending the strategy, but the race becomes a national symbol of GOP candidate-quality risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Energy -0.3%
- Healthcare -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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