Possible scenario
Razor Thin Dispute
15% Chance
The race lands inside recount or litigation territory, especially if late mail ballots and provisional ballots decide the margin. Trump and Paxton frame the count as a legitimacy fight, extending uncertainty beyond election night.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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