Possible scenario
Paxton Recovers Narrowly
34% Chance
Paxton's 34% win odds prove to be a low point rather than a collapse. Trump, national GOP groups, and conservative media re-nationalize the race around immigration, judges, and party control of the Senate.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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