Possible scenario
Congressional Legal Pushback
25% Chance
The Senate Armed Services Committee and defense appropriators challenge the scale and process of the cuts. The dispute centers on whether Hegseth bypassed statutory consultation, promotion procedures, or readiness reporting obligations.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
- GD-0.5%
- -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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