Possible scenario
Civil-Military Rupture
20% Chance
The cuts trigger a sharper confrontation between Pentagon leadership and senior uniformed officers. Resignations, leaks, or allied complaints turn the issue from a personnel action into a civil-military governance crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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