Possible scenario
Containment And Compromise
38% Chance
French political leaders avoid an immediate fiscal rupture and keep the bond-market selloff from becoming self-reinforcing. The government offers limited spending cuts and tax measures sufficient to reassure investors that near-term debt issuance will remain orderly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Utilities +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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