Possible scenario
Budget Deadlock Deepens
30% Chance
Parliament remains fractured and the government cannot assemble votes for credible fiscal consolidation. Investors demand a higher risk premium for French debt as the possibility of another government collapse or election rises.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -2.7%
- Industrials -1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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